Wildfires are burning in North America and Europe, and deadly heat waves have affected many cities. The world's oceans are also the hottest ever recorded for this time of year. Yet 2026 is still only the third-hottest year so far, behind 2024 and 2025.

That may soon change. Scientists say there is a growing chance that 2026 will become the hottest year on record, passing 2024, or at least come close. Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth, a climate research group, calculated a 35% chance that 2026 will set the record, up from 7% in March 2026. Even if it does, the record may not last long, because researchers agree that 2027 will very likely be warmer. Hausfather warned, "It's going to keep getting worse."

There are two main causes. The first is human-caused global warming from burning coal, oil, and gas. The second is El Nino, a natural, temporary warming of part of the Pacific Ocean that raises global temperatures. Forecasts suggest this El Nino could become the strongest ever measured.

Still, scientists say the extreme weather in the summer of 2026 comes mainly from climate change, not El Nino. This is because El Nino's effects take a few months to appear. Since June 2026, sea surface temperatures have set records almost every day.

The heat is also affecting people directly. According to Copernicus, Europe's climate service, hot nights are making sleep difficult, which harms people's health and makes it harder for them to work well.